Oscar Picks 2018

• 1 Mar 2018
• Posted by Christy
•   Uncategorized

Apparently, I didn’t do any Oscar picks last year. Just straight-up blew it off. Unless maybe I did try to make the impossible choice between whether “La La Land” or “Moonlight” should win best picture, and what I wrote just evaporated into the ether. Either way, I’m back with some vague insights into how things might shake out on Sunday night. Feel free to chime in with your predictions, as well.

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: “Call Me By Your Name,” “Darkest Hour,” “Dunkirk,” “Get Out,” “Lady Bird,” “Phantom Thread,” “The Post,” “The Shape of Water,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”

Will win: “The Shape of Water” or “Get Out”

Should win: “Call Me By Your Name” or “Phantom Thread”

Wild card: “Lady Bird” or “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

It really could go a number of different ways this year. All the precursor awards and critics group honors have pointed in various directions. Guillermo del Toro’s “The Shape of Water” has the most nominations with 13, so it seems like a safe bet. As a sumptuous love letter to classic cinema, it checks a lot of the right boxes with Academy voters. But “Get Out” is daring and accomplished — an impressive filmmaking debut from Jordan Peele. With its tricky mix of horror and satire, it very much speaks to where we are now as a nation. Then again, it could be “Lady Bird” Or it could be “Three Billboards.” What I’m trying to say is: Who knows?

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk”; Jordan Peele, “Get Out”; Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”; Paul Thomas Anderson, “Phantom Thread”; Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water.”

Will win: Del Toro or Peele

Should win: Anderson

Wild card: Nolan

I can easily envision a world in which there’s a best picture/director split. Maybe “Get Out ” wins best picture and del Toro wins for director, or vice versa. At the Directors Guild awards — a pretty reliable bellwether as to what’s going to happen at the Academy Awards — del Toro won, but Peele also won in the relatively new category of best first feature. It’s just amazing to me that none of these five filmmakers has ever won a best-director Oscar before. I’m in love with “Phantom Thread” and would be thrilled to see Anderson finally receive this overdue honor. And it’s so exciting to see Gerwig get recognized for her solo filmmaking debut. But then there’s Nolan, whose “Dunkirk” is an exquisite demonstration of his craft. Again: Who knows?

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Timothee Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”; Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”; Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”; Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”; Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Will win: Oldman

Should win: Chalamet

Wild card: None

As is the case in all four acting categories, Gary Oldman is far and away the frontrunner, having won every imaginable award leading up to Sunday night. It makes sense: His portrayal of Winston Churchill in “Darkest Hour” is super big and showy. It’s hard to imagine how there was any scenery left to shoot the film once he was done chewing it all. So this one’s easy to pick. But I’d love to see Chalamet win for my favorite movie of the year, “Call Me by Your Name,” if only for the seven-minute shot at the end in which he sits in front of the camera and cries. I want to cry just thinking about it.

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”; Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”; Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”; Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”; Meryl Streep, “The Post.”

Will win: McDormand

Should win: Robbie

Wild card: Ronan

It’s hard to imagine anyone but McDormand starring in “Three Billboards.” She’s profane, no-nonsense and laceratingly verbal. But as a mother seeking justice for the rape and killing of her teenage daughter, McDormand also has the opportunity to show her character’s vulnerability; when she finally cracks, it’s heartbreaking. She’s won everything leading up to the big night, and she’s the easy favorite to earn her second Oscar following her iconic role in “Fargo.” But I’d kinda love to see Robbie win for her portrayal of Tonya Harding. She plays the disgraced figure skater believably over decades of her life, suppressing her natural, head-turning beauty in the process. She shepherded this story to the screen as a producer. And she had to learn how to skate —  which I promise you is not easy, especially as an adult. Then again, Ronan does some of the best work in her career as a surly teen seeking her place in the world in “Lady Bird” — already her third Oscar nomination, and she’s only 23.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”; Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”; Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”; Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”; Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”

Will win: Rockwell

Should win: Rockwell

Wild card: Dafoe

Rockwell has been doing consistently great work for the past three decades, and he’s so versatile. It’s mostly been character parts, but when he brings his inspired instincts and presence to a starring role, as he did in “Moon,” it’s so exciting to watch. McDormand may dominate “Three Billboards,” but Rockwell’s arc gives it heart. As an ignorant, redneck deputy in small-town Missouri, his evolution helps drive the film and take it in unexpected directions.  But Dafoe is lovely in “The Florida Project,” serving as the glue in a cast of mostly non-actors and providing humanity within the squalor.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”; Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”; Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”; Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”; Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water.”

Will win: Janney

Should win: Janney or Metcalf

Wild card: Manville

Again, this is a big, brash piece of acting. Janney just tears it up as Tonya Harding’s physically and verbally abusive mother in “I, Tonya.” She’s hilarious and terrifying all at once. But it’s possible that another maternal performance might win this category: Metcalf, as Ronan’s overworked, underappreciated mom in “Lady Bird.” She’s not perfect — she’s not always sweet and supportive — and that complexity makes her feel real, relatable and alive. And I mention Manville as a wild card for the hell of it, simply because she low-key dominates as the sister and business partner of Day-Lewis’ 1950s couture designer. Hopefully, her nomination will help draw folks toward this delicious, delirious drama.